Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
US gold futures slid over 1 per cent on Thursday, while silver futures dropped 2 per cent.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
Trading in the domestic stock market would be influenced by trends in the global equities, macroeconomic data and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Markets may face volatile trends on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.
A weak dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise while fresh sell-off by foreign funds in domestic stocks capped the currency's gains, forex dealers said.
Nifty PSU Bank index gained 1% led by Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank and IDBI Bank
Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
The Sensex finished above the psychologically key 60,000-mark while the Nifty surged past the 18,000-level on Monday on across-the-board buying amid a mixed trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and concerns over the US Federal Reserve hiking rates later this week failed to quell investors' appetite for stocks, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 786.74 points or 1.31 per cent to settle at 60,746.59.
It is by now quite clear that in all likelihood the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in its next meeting in mid-December.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
Iyer is a player who primarily plays with hands with not much pronounced footwork.
Titan, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Power Grid, NTPC and Tata Motors were among the among the major gainers. Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Nestle, JSW Steel, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra and Maruti were the major laggards.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.45/46 per dollar, weaker from Wednesday's 61.35/36.
'If there is any reason to change my holding in Adani group stocks, the Hindenburg report on the group is not the one.'
It could be a tough week In the run-up to such an event, the market is always nervous.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
Despite its admirable competence and proven track record, the RBI doesn't have the capacity to supervise an economy that's growing so fast and becoming larger by the year, points out T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
Equity markets this week will be largely guided by trends in global stocks, foreign funds' trading activity and progress of monsoon, analysts said. Investors will also track the movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at fresh lifetime highs on Friday.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
The broader NSE Nifty shuttled between 10,784.65 and 10,689.80, before ending 21.30 points, or 0.20 per cent, lower at 10,718.05.
Markets ended higher, amid firm global cues, and are on track for third straight day of gains.
Pharma shares extended losses after the government's ban on combination drugs.
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The broader markets traded positively with mid-caps and small-caps rising 0.5 per cent each on the BSE.
Broader markets underperformed indices with BSE Midcap down 0.43% while the Smallcap index fell 0.07%.
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
'Returns can be very variable in equity markets.' 'That is why I tell small investors don't put 100 per cent of your money in equities, even if you are young.'
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
An escalation in the already simmering tensions between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine could prove to be a bigger worry for the markets over the next few months rather than central bank policy action, said analysts. The markets, they said, are still not fully factoring in this possibility. "The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another geopolitical worry.
Spending at restaurants and bars grew more than 8 per cent compared to the year before.
Online travel portals are flooded with flight and train bookings, hotels teeming with requests for accommodation, and spiritual merchandise on e-commerce platforms is selling like hotcakes. As the consecration ceremony of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on January 22 draws near, Indians across the country are putting their travelling boots on as the temple frenzy catches on. India's largest travel technology (traveltech) platform MakeMyTrip (MMT) has witnessed a substantial four-fold increase in bookings for Ayodhya compared to the previous year.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Markets end higher ahead of Fed outcome, China stimulus
Markets ended lower on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak, as investors turned cautious and booked profit in financials.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
'India seems to be on a relatively better wicket compared to other emerging markets.'
In Singapore, oil prices eased in Asian trade today on a mixed US inventory report indicating tepid demand, while expectations of a return of Libyan supplies also weighed, analysts said.
